The Economic Downturn Is Not Over Says CCIM Institute's Chief Economist
K.C. Conway is the Chief Economist of the CCIM Institute. For those of you not familiar with the CCIM, it stands for "Certified Commercial Investment Manager". It's one of the highest and most respoected designations a Realtor can achieve, and denotes complete expertise in the area of commercial real estate. Also, for those who don't know, our boss here at "BrionCosta.com" is himself a CCIM.
At any rate, according to Mr. Conway, the economic outlook for commercial real estate and the economy in general, is not pretty between now and the rest of the year. His view is that we've not seen the last of the really serious effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy and on commercial real estate.
In this article from "Commercial Investment Real Estate Magazine", Mr. Conway breaks down the entire outlook. He goes through the different industries and indicators that show us just where we are, and documents why his prognostications are so bleak. He also hits on a few industries and sectors that have chances to break through if they do it right. All in all, this is a really important read for anyone interested in the future of the economy and, more specifically, any of the sectors that make up the field of commercial real estate.
The economic lift from states reopening businesses this summer will likely be followed by a contraction in the fall or winter into 2021, as holes not plugged from initial fiscal and monetary intervention will be revealed. What holes am I referencing? Some include the slew of bankruptcies to follow in leisure and travel, the retail sector, small businesses, and manufacturing — from autos and airplanes to equipment and housing. Some of this bankruptcy activity is already underway with announcements by rental car companies such as Hertz and Advantage. However, many more are expected as CARES, Paycheck Protection Program 1.0, PPP 2.0, and Main Street fiscal and monetary intervention programs wind down.
Commercial Real Estate Faces Rocky Future Through 2020
The Covid-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy. Commercial real estate is not immune, and, in fact, is being hit harder in some sectors while others are not so bad. Travel and leisure, for instance, are economic sectors that have influence on commercial real estate values that are being crushed right now. Industrial and warehouse space, however, are doing fairly well as the retail sector transitions to a model of ordering online. Retail space is being hit hard for the same reason as industrial and warehousing is doing well.
Commercial real estate is a big subject with many sectors operating hand-in-hand. Overall it seems there is a bumpy road ahead as sectors shift and change as a result of the economic and social changes brought on by the pandemic. As with all things, this too will end. Calmer waters will come our way. But, until then, we'll probably be seeing some rougher times still.